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September 12, 2025Asian Journal of Advanced Research and ReportsOpen Access

Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption for Urea Production in Nigeria: A SARIMAX Modeling Approach

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Authors

PMPeter Chukwunonso MagboRORemigius Obinna Okeke

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Overview

Model predicts steady natural gas consumption for urea production in Nigeria, indicating infrastructure needs.

Key Points

  • Forecast predicts natural gas consumption will grow steadily, reaching approximately 215.76 billion cubic feet by 2027.
  • Using the SARIMAX model on historical data from March 2021 to October 2024, the average monthly growth rate is about 0.91%.
  • Proactive planning for stability in urea production hinges on infrastructure improvements and long-term gas supply contracts.
  • The model exhibited a satisfactory fit with strong performance metrics, including RMSE, MAPE, and R² values.

Cite This Study

Magbo et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68d44b3031b076d99fa54907https://doi.org/10.9734/ajarr/2025/v19i91152
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