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Recolonization pattern of Wolves in Northern Apennines, Central Italy: A Bayesian Analysis Using Opportunistic and Systematic Data

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Bayesian analysis reveals wolf recolonization patterns in the Apuan Alps, highlighting unique survey challenges.

Wolf occupancy in the Apuan Alps increased 15-fold from 2011 to 2018, with breeding units rising from one to four by 2018.
Systematic sampling showed an estimated wolf occupancy of ~0.60 and detection probabilities threefold higher than opportunistic surveys.
Combining opportunistic playback surveys and camera-trap records revealed a two-phase pattern of recolonization, with initial lag followed by rapid expansion.
Opportunistic survey data, despite biases, provides valuable insights for managing and monitoring recolonizing large carnivores.

Petroni et al. (2025) studied this question.

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View Full Paper

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Authors

Bayesian analysis reveals wolf recolonization patterns in the Apuan Alps, highlighting unique survey challenges.

Wolf occupancy in the Apuan Alps increased 15-fold from 2011 to 2018, with breeding units rising from one to four by 2018.
Systematic sampling showed an estimated wolf occupancy of ~0.60 and detection probabilities threefold higher than opportunistic surveys.
Combining opportunistic playback surveys and camera-trap records revealed a two-phase pattern of recolonization, with initial lag followed by rapid expansion.
Opportunistic survey data, despite biases, provides valuable insights for managing and monitoring recolonizing large carnivores.

Petroni et al. (2025) studied this question.

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