Can China’s live hog futures market respond to the government-released hog product reports?

China's live hog futures were launched on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on 8 January 2021, marking an important step towards stabilizing the hog industry and mitigating price volatility. In May of the same year, the Chinese government began releasing monthly hog product reports as a primary source of public market information. This study aims to examine whether the live hog futures market responds to these reports. Using an event study approach and regression analysis, we find no statistically significant market response to either the release or unanticipated information of hog product reports. Robustness tests further support this finding. To explore potential reasons for the limited market response, we analyse the structural characteristics of China's live hog futures market. Compared with mature agricultural futures markets, the live hog futures market exhibits low market activity, poor liquidity, and high volatility – conditions that may hinder its ability to absorb and reflect public information efficiently. In particular, the high-threshold contract size appears to be a key constraint on market quality. Our results offer practical insights for exchanges and regulators seeking to optimize futures contracts and enhance the informational efficiency of futures markets.