Examining Municipal Non-Partisanship: The Relationship Between Mayoral and Provincial/Federal Elections in Ontario

Despite the common notion that municipal politics are immune to partisan influence, empirical evidence challenges this assumption. Analyzing data from Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, and Windsor, this study reveals a significant relationship between mayoral candidate vote share and provincial/federal party vote share. Specifically, left-leaning mayoral candidate cote share correlates with higher NDP and ONDP support, while right-leaning candidates perform better in areas with increased CPC and PCPO backing. Furthermore, a nuanced and more complex relationship between mayoral vote share and LPC and OLP support is uncovered. These findings challenge the perception of municipal elections as solely driven by local issues, suggesting instead a substantial influence of partisan affiliations. The paper underscores the need to reassess the role of partisanship in ostensibly non-partisan municipal politics and acknowledge the role of partisanship in shaping electoral outcomes.