Derivation of top-level aircraft requirements for small aircraft transport by modelling demand in Europe

Advancements in aircraft technologies and in the process of aircraft electrification allow for the design of new small aircraft transport configurations with a significant impact on sustainability, travel time, and operating cost. Additionally, the European Flightpath 2050 creates a European-wide political landscape to enable developments in that field to thrive. All this together provides an environment that promises to open new business opportunities in the form of new and revived mobility services. However, the described ecosystem raises the question of what demand exists for small aircraft transport and what top-level aircraft requirements need to be achieved to realize customer-centric small aircraft transport. Data of the existing traffic patterns in Europe are analyzed to create a demand model, derive the top-level aircraft requirements for an aircraft and ultimately lay the foundation for a successful European small aircraft transport system. Initially, traffic pattern data are collected with a resolution on county and city level, thereby ensuring a high accuracy of larger and smaller travel distances. Subsequently to the data collection, the income distribution in European countries is analyzed and in combination with a Willingness To Pay function the actual existing small aircraft transport demand is determined. The demand optimized top-level aircraft requirements are then derived by starting at a baseline nine-seater aircraft and varying the demand models input parameters to maximize the demand. The above-described approach allows to extract the potential annual demand in Europe for a certain set of requirements, it also details how a single parameter effects the demand. Hence, it provides sensitivities to illuminate design focal points. In consideration of all the described factors, the paper defines the top-level aircraft requirement, thereby enabling the design of new small aircraft transport configurations.