Secondary Vocational Education Expansion and Human Capital Accumulation

Context: The separation of vocational and general education aims to improve education levels, efficiency, and quality, yet its impact is debated due to diverse contexts. This paper examines China's 1983 expansion of secondary vocational education, analyzing its influence on human capital, educational choices, and long-term socio-economic outcomes, specifically investigates the role of family capital, highlighting the efficiency-equity tension in policy. Approach: The study uses data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) spanning 2008 to 2018 and employs a Generalized Cohort Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to analyse the impact of the 1983 expansion policy, and the moderating effect of family capital. Findings: (1) The policy increased overall educational attainment. Individuals' probability of reaching vocational school and college or higher significantly rose, fostering talent and human capital. (2) Family capital positively moderated this effect, boosting attainment for advantaged families. (3) For long-term, groups with college degrees or higher post-policy showed income and socioeconomic disadvantages, particularly those from low-family-capital backgrounds. Conclusions: The findings indicates that individuals who do not have an advantage in family capital, even if they can seize this reform opportunity to improve their education, are still limited in achieving better long-term development goals, and education equity issues still exist. The study highlights the need for policies that not only expand access to vocational education but also ensure pathways for career advancement and social mobility.