A clinical predictive model for recurrence after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for choledocholithiasis: Construction, validation and study of its value for clinical application

Choledocholithiasis is a common biliary disorder whose treatment relies on endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Despite the remarkable clinical results of ERCP in the treatment of choledocholithiasis, postoperative recurrence remains a significant challenge. Therefore, accurate prediction of the risk of recurrence after ERCP is important for optimizing the treatment plan, reducing the recurrence rate and improving patient prognosis. To develop of a predictive model for choledocholithiasis recurrence after ERCP calculi removal procedure. A total of 415 patients were collected in this study. Recurrence occurred in 69 patients during the 1-year follow-up time after undergoing the ERCP calculi removal procedure, and 346 patients did not experience recurrence. Patient-related data were collected and past medical history was collected to study the correlates affecting calculus recurrence after ERCP calculi removal procedure in patients and to develop a predictive model. After analyzing the results, it was concluded that the number of calculuses, hyperlipidemia, angle of the common bile duct juncture, combined with intrahepatic bile duct calculuses, hypoproteinaemia, and the diameter of the common bile duct were risk factors for recurrence of choledocholithiasis after the ERCP calculi removal procedure, P < .2. The data obtained were further included in a multi-factor logistic regression analysis: the number of calculuses, hyperlipidemia, angle of the common bile duct juncture, combined with intrahepatic bile duct calculuses, hypoproteinaemia, and the diameter of the common bile duct, were independent risk factors for the recurrence of choledocholithiasis after ERCP removal procedure, P < .05. We have successfully established a clinical model with high predictive value, which can help clinicians to accurately assess the recurrence risk of patients before surgery, thus providing a scientific basis for personalized treatment.