The ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly the war in Ukraine, have a direct impact on the South Caucasus. The tensions between Russia and the United States, NATO, and the European Union are deepening and are increasingly reflected in the region. This article discusses Russia’s red lines concerning Georgia’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO, and examines the potential conflicts that may arise between the USA, NATO, EU and Russia in this context. To provide a comprehensive picture, the article also briefly touches on the foreign policy agendas of Armenia and Azerbaijan in relation to Russia and the EU. A key aspect of the analysis involves understanding the risks that Georgia’s potential EU membership poses for Russia. The study employs methods such as event analysis, scenario forecasting, SWOT analysis and comparative analysis. The main conclusion of the research is that, in the context of Russia's national security perceptions, Georgia’s EU membership is considered a threat. Moreover, the EU’s regional integration policy near Russia’s borders is perceived as a serious risk to Russia’s security strategy.
Alaverdyan et al. (Wed,) studied this question.