A Bayesian Framework for the Calibration of Cyclic Triaxial Tests

This research presents the calibration of a constitutive model to replicate the cyclic performance of soils using a Bayesian framework. This study uses data from laboratory-conducted consolidated undrained isotropic cyclic triaxial tests and numerical tools to estimate optimal parameters by the application of Slice Sampling in a Bayesian analysis and to determinate the uncertainty of the model. For each calibrated parameter in the model, a probability distribution was obtained from the Markov chain. The means and the standard deviations from the distributions are compared with the laboratory results by the simulation of a series of consolidated undrained isotropic cyclic triaxial tests and a numerical model for a deposit that replicates the Wildlife’s stratigraphic characteristics. The calibrated model response offers a good approximation of the recorded data and the uncertainty due to the model is evaluated. The results of this study demonstrate that Bayesian calibration can reliably quantify parameter uncertainty, reveal parameter correlations that deterministic methods overlook, and improve confidence in liquefaction assessments. This probabilistic framework provides a robust basis for extending calibration to other soil types and site conditions.