History offers no shortage of war, but precious few durable peaces. Mediation, for all its noble pretensions, has long been a function of power, exerted by empires, dictated by superpowers, and affected by geopolitical interests. This study interrogates the changing nature of mediation in Africa from 1975 to 2019, testing the illusion of a rules-based order replacing great-power intrigue. Analyzing peace agreements, we find that regional organizations and neighboring states have overtaken traditional global arbiters, as joint mediation has surged. The liberal school of inevitable institutional progress is punctured by reality: great-power interests never vanished; they adapted. Mediation is no longer the province of Cold War players, neither is it the triumph of cooperation over coercion. Instead, we see a paradigm in flux, one that will either stabilize or fracture under resurgent multipolar competition.
Gallagher et al. (Mon,) studied this question.