Response of Super Typhoons Goni (2020) and Rai (2021) to past and future climate conditions in convection-permitting model experiments

Using 3-km convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and applying the pseudo-global warming technique, we investigated the effects of changes of past (1970-2019) and near-future (2020-2049) climates on two recent Super Typhoons (STY) that impacted the Philippines - STY Rai (Odette, 2021) and STY Goni (Rolly, 2020). By applying thermodynamic perturbations derived from CMIP6 CESM2 projections under SSP2-4.5, we assess changes in typhoon characteristics, including intensity, size, translation speed, and rainfall. Our findings reveal, relative to the current climate, future simulations yield higher peak 10-m winds by +1.61% (Rai) and +3.58% (Goni), larger sizes by +26.06% (Rai) and +8.33% (Goni), faster translation by +9.86% (Rai) and +2.23% (Goni), higher rainfall rates by +13.19% (Rai) and +16.36% (Goni), and greater total accumulated rainfall by +25.95% (Rai) and +25.90% (Goni). Conversely, under past-climate simulations (relative to current), maximum winds are weaker by −17.47% (Rai) and −0.91% (Goni), size is smaller by −2.42% (Rai) and −8.33% (Goni), translation is faster by +9.55% (Rai) and +6.34% (Goni), rainfall rates decrease by −6.39% (Rai) and −6.69% (Goni), and total rainfall is lower by −3.67% (Rai) and −6.69% (Goni).. These changes are primarily driven by enhanced latent heat flux, increased mid-tropospheric moisture, and stronger vertical motion under warmer conditions. Furthermore, our projected future simulations indicate that the STYs are more intense and have more rainfall over land, which could exacerbate wind-related damage and flooding potential, raising concerns for disaster risk reduction. The changes in rainfall in the past simulations (~6–7% per °C) are consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, yet our ~13–16% future increases point to Super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior. This amplification is plausibly driven by dynamics - notably larger TC size, stronger updrafts, and enhanced latent-heat flux and low-level convergence. These results underscore the pressing need to integrate future TC projections into disaster preparedness.