Simulation Analysis of Kinetic Impact Effects on Near-Earth Asteroid Defense Mission Using Precise Orbit Determination

The potential threat of near-Earth asteroid impacts on Earth has prompted global efforts to intensify research into asteroid defense technologies, and China plans to launch such a mission. Kinetic impact, as an effective defense method, changes the asteroid’s trajectory to prevent a collision. However, the impact of kinetic energy on the asteroid’s orbit is constrained by multiple factors, making the evaluation of the impact effects a challenge. This paper, set in the context of China’s future inaugural asteroid defense mission, conducted a full-process asteroid orbit determination analysis and kinetic impact effect assessment. It analyzed the orbital accuracy of the target asteroid 2015 XF261 based on Earth-based observations, as well as the orbiting accuracy based on simulated observations from the “Observer” nearby the asteroid. In addition, in the phase of quantitative inversion analysis and evaluation after the kinetic impact, a velocity deviation of 1 mm s −1 due to the kinetic impact on the asteroid is considered. Based on six months each of pre- and postimpact observation data from “Observer,” an impact effect inversion with an accuracy of better than 0.0001 mm s −1 can be achieved. Through high-precision orbit determination simulation analysis, this study provides important theoretical support for evaluating the effects of kinetic impact and lays a foundation for our national mission orbit analysis and the realization of scientific objectives.