From individual carbon inequality to equitable provincial mitigation effort-sharing in China

Abstract Provincial-level mitigation responsibilities in China typically focus on production-based targets, overlooking significant inequalities in individual carbon footprints (CFs). Here, we quantify individual consumption and investment CFs across Chinese provinces for 2017 and, based on a business-as-usual projection of provincial emissions and individual CF distribution, we develop a consumption-based effort-sharing framework for 2030. Our framework addresses carbon inequality by imposing an emission cap on high-CF individuals while guaranteeing minimum allowances for low emitters. Our analysis shows substantial CF disparities in 2017: the wealthiest 10% contributed 22% of emissions, while the poorest 50% accounted for only 29%. One way to meet China’s 2030 climate target is to cap individual CFs at a maximum of 11.2 tCO₂/yr. To meet decent living standards, CFs may increase for about 5% of the Chinese population, but this would only add 0.3% to total emissions. Conversely, the richest 30% of the population, whose emissions are primarily investment-driven (over 50%), would need to reduce emissions by 45% to comply with this cap. Some northern and northwestern provinces face greater mitigation challenges due to over 40% of their population exceeding the CF cap. Our findings underscore the importance of tracing and managing high-income investment-driven emissions for fair and effective climate policy in China.