Analysis of the Burden of Breast and Gynecological Cancers among Population Aged 60 and above in Asia from 1990 to 2021: Based on the Global burden of Disese data in 2021

Background Breast cancer (BC) and gynecological cancer (GC) pose significant risks to women's health. Its incidence and mortality are increasing over year in Asia. This study analyses the burden of BC and GC in Asian regions from 1990 to 2021, utilising data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, and projects trends through 2051. Methods The incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were analyzed the burden of GC across regions, countries, and age. Health inequality analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) model were used to assess temporal trends. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models were used to forecast disease trends up to 2051. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values quantified the significant contribution of population, age and year. Results In 2021, the incidence of BC globally was significantly higher than that of GC, with incidence cases and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) at 1,000,134.13 (95% UI: 1,076,980.27, 1,076,980.27) and 170.68 (95% UI: 170.34, 171.01). In High-income Asia Pacific, the burden showed an upward for BC but downward for cervical cancer (CC), with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ASIR at 4.61 (95% UI: -2.77 to 12.56) for BC and 0.42 (95% UI: -7.48, 7.19) for CC. Expect for in East Asia, the burden of ovarian cancer (OC) in Asia was lower than the global level. The burden of uterine cancer (UC) was significantly higher in Central Asia. The burden of GC was relatively severe in United Arab Emirates. The temporal trend rose for BC, OC and UC, but it declined for CC, which these trend were consistent with increasing SDI in 2021. Therefore, the burden of absolute health inequality were concentrated in high SDI regions for BC and UC. The relative risks of BC kept rising in age, period and cohort effect. By 2051, the number of BC and GC all increased. The epidemiological indicators of BC, OC and UC will keep rising in Asia. Conclusion Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence of BC and GC in Asia exhibited an upward trend; however, the burden of BC remained more severe than that of GC in 2021. This study offers essential information for targeted intervention based on comprehensive research.