Assessment of the Effects of the Fertilizer Support Programme on Maize Productivity: A Chow-test approach

In an effort to alleviate poverty and increase the incomes of millions of rural Zambia that depend on agriculture, the Zambian government has been implementing the Fertilizer Support Programme since 2002. Since then, the allocations to the FSP have been increasing despite claims that the programme has not been achieving the intended objectives. Unlike other studies conducted on the subject, this study used time series data to assess the effects of the fertilizer support programme on maize productivity. The methodology involved the use of tests of structural breaks (Chow-test) as a device for identifying discontinuities in the data which potentially represent treatment effects. The paper used data from the FAO database on national production and area under production between 1990 and 2010 a period that covers the pre — FSP period (1990-2001) and post-FSP (2002-2010). The results showed that there has been a significant difference in the marginal productivity of land between the two periods (l .857 tons/hectare for the pre — FSP period compared to 2.219 tons/hectare for the post — FSP period) at the five percent significant level. The conclusion is that even though the FSP has resulted in significant increase in marginal productivity over the period in question, the question still remains whether the cost of the programme can be justified by the observed increase in marginal productivity.