Evaluation of flood risk due to rainfall under the impact of climate change in Antalya region

This study assesses flood risks in Antalya region under climate change using CMIP5 data for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Historical records (1970–2023) from Antalya, Alanya and Manavgat stations reveal increasing trends in extreme rainfall and temperature. Findings indicate a 40% rise in extreme rainfall under RCP8.5, with floods concentrating in winter months. Two novel flood risk coefficients – Rainfall Dependent Flood Coefficient (FCp) and Temperature Dependent Flood Coefficient (FCt) – were introduced to predict high-risk periods. Results show that 80% monthly rainfall during flood events occurs within 10 days, while flood risk is projected to increase by 60% under RCP8.5. The study highlights the urgent need for proactive urban planning and flood mitigation strategies. The proposed coefficients offer a simple, adaptable tool for flood risk assessment, providing valuable insights for Mediterranean regions facing similar hydrological challenges.