Track to Combat Wheat Stem Rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) Races: Pathogenicity Spectrum, Tempo-Spatial Dynamics, and Impacts on Irrigated Wheat in Ethiopia under Climate Change

Wheat stem rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) is a major global threat to wheat production, driven by rapid shifts in virulence and race diversity. This study aimed to identify physiological races of stem rust pathogens in Ethiopia's irrigated wheat-growing areas. Surveys and race analyses were conducted during the 2020/21–2023/24 large-scale wheat expansion periods, alongside a systemic review of rust dynamics from 2012 to 2022. Results revealed significant shifts in stem rust races, with an increasing dominance of virulent races over the last decade. TKTTF dominated from 2012 to 2016, succeeded by TTTTF in 2017, and TKKTF in 2019–2020. By 2021–2022, TTKTT and TTKTF races were prevalent, affecting 90% of wheat fields. From 2020 to 2024, five major races were identified: TTKTT, TTKTF, TTTTF, TKKTF, and TKTTF, with TTKTT, a virulent Ug99 mutant, emerging as the most dominant. This race exhibits a 95% virulence spectrum, overcoming resistance genes such as Sr24, widely used in commercial cultivars. The study highlights the urgent need to prioritize resistance breeding against virulent races, particularly in irrigated wheat regions, which serve as hotspots for pathogen evolution. Strategic rust intervention and improved screening are essential for protecting both irrigated and rain-fed wheat crops, ensuring sustainable wheat production in Ethiopia and the globe under climate change.