The potential of trade and economic cooperation of Tatarstan and the Samara region with the Volga-Yangtze project regions

Purpose: to assess the potential for developing and strengthening trade and economic cooperation between Tatarstan, the Samara region, and the provinces of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China, which are part of the Volga-Yangtze project. Methods: the study applies methods developed by the authors for analyzing the structure and complementarity of trade flows. To evaluate the degree of economic compatibility, a complementarity index was calculated. The level of import dependency was examined using a modified Balassa index. The export potential of Tatarstan and Samara region was assessed through the comparison of bilateral commodity flows between Russian and Chinese regions. Results: the potential of trade and economic cooperation between Tatarstan and the Samara region is revealed, and the convergence of commodity flows between the regions of the two countries is shown. The regions of China with a high degree of import dependence on Russian goods have been identified, as well as key commodity groups with high potential for developing non-primary exports, including chemical products, mechanical engineering and metallurgy. Quantitative estimates of potential export volumes are presented, which contributes to the expansion of opportunities for deepening economic and trade cooperation between the Republic of Tatarstan, the Samara region and the provinces of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China. С onclusions and Relevance: the linkage of commodity flows between Russian and Chinese regions forms the basis for realizing export potential. Despite the relatively low share of non-commodity exports in Russia’s overall trade turnover, Chinese regions demonstrate substantial demand for high value-added products, opening avenues for increasing exports from Tatarstan and Samara region. The complementarity index confirmed a high level of economic interdependence among Tatarstan, Samara region, and the Chinese regions involved in the Volga-Yangtze project, particularly in the sectors of chemical industry, machinery manufacturing, and metallurgy. To fully realize the cooperation potential, it is necessary to eliminate logistical and administrative barriers and to actively utilize digital platforms for promoting Russian products in the Chinese market.