Economic assessment of reasonability of introducing quantum communications in the energy sector

Purpose: evaluation of economic reasonability of quantum transformation of the information security function using the example of energy sector facilities. Methods: the paper uses the author's model for assessing the economic efficiency of quantum transformation of the information security function, based on approaches to analyzing the probability of risks associated with the creation of a quantum computer, as well as to assessing the investments required to implement innovative solutions in the field of quantum communications. The calculation was carried out on the example of PJSC RusHydro; data on the company were collected from open sources and annual reports. Results: the model for assessing the economic efficiency of quantum transformation of the information security function was tested. The Mosca’s Theorem was improved in the field of forecasting the timing of quantum transformation, taking into account the factor of economic efficiency of investment projects. Recommendations for implementing quantum key distribution equipment and post-quantum algorithms in the long term were developed. Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed original model allows assessing the economic efficiency of implementing quantum communications technologies, and the updated Mosca’s Theorem allows determining the economically justified timeframes for quantum transformation. The study showed that quantum communications may be of greatest interest to companies that own key critical information infrastructure facilities that provide high revenue figures. The higher the decentralization of infrastructure facilities is and the lower the risk of financial losses due to downtime is, the less economically efficient the projects for implementing quantum communications are. Thus, to protect multiple intelligent substations within the Smart Grid, it is recommended to use post-quantum mathematical algorithms that do not require significant capital investments. The results obtained may be of practical use for participants in the quantum market in Russia: the regulator, research centers, commercial developers of solutions, and potential clients.