Trends and Forecast of Health Indicators of Russian Internal Affairs Officers Related to the Consequences of External Causes

BACKGROUND: Injuries, poisonings, and other consequences of external causes (ICD-10, Chapter 19) continue to occupy a significant place in the structure of morbidity, temporary disability, permanent disability, and mortality among Internal Affairs officers. This necessitates an analysis of their trends and the development of predictive models under conditions of changing service-related workload. AIM: The work aimed to assess the trends and forecast health indicators related to the consequences of external causes among officers of the Internal Affairs bodies. METHODS: A retrospective time-series analysis was performed for primary morbidity, loss of work capacity, mortality, and primary disability caused by external causes (ICD-10, Chapter 19) among Internal Affairs officers from 2008 to 2024. Forecasts for 2025–2028 were generated using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, supplemented with a binary exogenous factor reflecting participation in combat operations. The validity of differences between models with and without the external factor was assessed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). RESULTS: The predictive models demonstrated a significant influence of the exogenous factor reflecting participation in combat operations on key medical-statistical indicators. Accounting for the external factor led to increased forecasted values for primary morbidity (by an average of 2.1‰), cases of loss of work capacity (by 3.8‰), and days of temporary disability (more than 270 per 1000 officers annually; p 0.001). Conversely, mortality and primary disability indicators were lower in the model with the exogenous factor, which may reflect organizational features of medical assistance and evacuation under increased risk. The observed differences between models were statistically significant for all parameters except disability (ANOVA, p 0.05). CONCLUSION: The inclusion of an exogenous predictor reflecting participation of Internal Affairs officers in combat operations improved the accuracy of forecasting key medical-demographic indicators related to external causes. The results highlight the necessity of systematic implementation of medical evacuation mechanisms, staged rehabilitation, and functional monitoring of affected officers to reduce disability-related losses and prolong professional longevity.