Assessing the key drivers for carsharing adoption: a system dynamics approach in London

Private car ownership remains a dominant travel mode in most global cities, contributing to congestion, emissions, and inefficient urban land use. Carsharing has emerged as a promising alternative, yet its adoption has not reached its expected impact. This situation necessitates a systemic approach, and this study develops a system dynamics model and a causal loop diagram. Drawing on survey data from 422 London residents, the model simulates the trends in the number of private car a[nd carsharing users over time from 2018 to 2050. The results show an initial increase in carsharing adoption accompanied by a decline in private car ownership. However, the appeal of private car use begins to rebound in later years. The causal loop diagram mapped in this research explains the factors driving the dynamics, as well as the relationships between them. Dynamic changes in the urban and transport context over the longer term may stimulate renewed interest in private cars. The findings suggest that without complementary policies and business-model innovations, carsharing alone may not sustainably reduce private car ownership. By integrating the model results with causal mechanisms, this study provides insights for both business strategy and policy design.