Understanding the 2023 compound dry hazard events across the Pan-Asian region

Amid a global trend of intensifying climate extremes, 2023 marked Earth’s hottest year on record that triggered widespread disruptions. As global warming continues, understanding the compound events characterized by dry hazards is crucial especially in Asia, where dense populations heighten vulnerability. This study examines the intricate characteristics of 2023 compound heatwave, drought, and fire (CHDF) events in Asia by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns from 1960 to 2023 during the extended warm season (April-October). Results reveal that the 2023 CHDF notably diverged from historical trends, with heatwave-driven compound events exhibiting a four- to eightfold increase in spatial extent since 1980. The severity and duration of 2023 HDF reached return periods of approximately 23 and 40 years, respectively. In particular, urban cores in East and Southeast Asia emerged as hotspots for CHDF events, pointing to the influence of land transformation. Attribution analysis further highlights the dominant role of human-induced climate change in amplifying the likelihood of 2023-like compound events (CEs), with DF responding more modestly than heatwave-driven CEs. Projections under SSP245 suggest that 2023-level CHDF events may stabilize by the 2060s with mitigation, while SSP585 indicates continued escalation and earlier emergence (≈ 1-5 years). Findings from this study emphasize the growing risk of compound dry hazards and the pressing need for targeted mitigation efforts and adaptive strategies to reduce Asia’s vulnerability to climate extremes.