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This is a Quantitative Study study.

September 19, 2025PLoS ONEOpen Access

Demand structure prediction and adaptation path of rural teachers in western China under population change

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Teacher demand is projected to decline by 28% in rural areas of western China by 2040 due to falling school-age populations.
Data from the seventh national census indicate a significant contraction in the teacher workforce, especially in preschool education.
The Leslie model was used for population forecasting to analyze future educational resource needs across different grades.
Adjusting staffing standards and enhancing teacher training pathways are essential for maintaining educational equity in rural regions.

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This analysis shows a decline in teacher demand due to population changes in rural areas, indicating a need for strategic adjustments.

Lv et al. (2025) studied this question.

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