A Study on the Comprehensive Cost Risk Evaluation of Highway Construction Based on the AHP-Improved Entropy Weight Method

To address the challenges of multiple cost-influencing factors, high risks, and difficult control in highway construction projects, this study conducts a cost risk assessment based on the full-process perspective of project owners. Considering the long duration and distinct phases of highway construction projects, the study employs a literature-based statistical method to identify the factors influencing cost risks and establishes an evaluation index system for cost risk factors throughout the entire construction process. Based on questionnaire surveys, the study applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to calculate the initial weights of the cost risk factors. Then, the improved entropy weight method is used to compute the correction coefficients for the initial weights and determine the final weight of each influencing factor. By integrating the results from AHP, the comprehensive weights of all factors are obtained, thereby identifying the key factors affecting cost risks throughout the entire highway construction process. Additionally, cost risk prevention and control measures are proposed. The research findings indicate that among the 42 evaluation factors, the ten factors with the greatest impact on project cost risks are project positioning changes, price inflation, unclear or erroneous contract terms, lack of supervision by design units, delayed compensation payments, collusion in bidding (including bid-rigging and cover bidding), lack of coordination among different departments leading to schedule risks, construction claims risks, risks associated with bidding methods, and financing risks. These ten key factors are analyzed in detail, and corresponding risk prevention and control measures are proposed.