Assessment of Potential Crown Fire Danger in Major Forest Types of the Da Xing’anling (Inner Mongolia) Mountains, China

Crown fires are a major disturbance in boreal and cold–temperate forests worldwide, threatening both ecosystems and human activities. The Da Xing’anling Mountains of Northeast China exemplify these dangers due to their complex vegetation and high crown fire potential. Crown fire occurrence depends on vertical fuel continuity, fuel load, heating value, surface fire spread rate, and critical fireline intensity. However, many assessments rely on single-factor metrics or low-adaptability simulations. This study developed a Potential Canopy Fire Danger Index (PCDI) that integrates five parameters—fuel vertical distribution continuity index, fuel loading, heating value, surface fire rate of spread, and critical fireline intensity—based on field surveys and combustion tests. Pinus pumila (Regel, 1861), with its dense shrub layer, showed the highest PCDI values (0.502, 0.583 and 0.527), whereas other forest types generally fell in the low to low–moderate range (0.350–0.450), with ≈75% of plots within these classes. Surface fire spread rate correlated most strongly with PCDI, followed by vertical fuel continuity, heating value, and fuel load; critical fireline intensity had minimal influence. The elevated hazard in P. pumila reflects its structural and fuel characteristics, while other forest types present comparatively lower dangers. Model checks indicated high stability and agreement with BehavePlus 6.0 scenarios, with the PCDI showing the lowest sample SD. The PCDI provides a quantitative framework for assessing crown fire danger in cold–temperate forests and supports targeted mitigation—prioritizing P. pumila while employing cost-effective maintenance in low-danger forest types.