Phosphorus Loss Risk in the Ju River Basin, China, Under Urbanization and Climate Change: Insights from the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) Model

Despite increasing concerns over recurrent phosphorus (P) pollution, the Ju River—a small tributary of the Yangtze River—has received limited scientific attention. To correct this, the present study integrates field-based observations with the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) model to comprehensively assess the conjunct effects of urban expansion and changing precipitation patterns on watershed hydrology and phosphorus dynamics at the small-catchment scale. A total of five urban expansion scenarios and three precipitation enhancement scenarios were simulated to capture both seasonal and event-driven variations in daily discharge and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. The model was calibrated and validated using in situ water quality data, ensuring high reliability of the simulations. The results indicate that agricultural non-point sources are the primary contributor to total phosphorus (TP) loads. During the overlapping period of intensive farming and heavy rainfall (June–July), TP concentrations more than doubled compared to other months, with these two months accounting for over 70% of the annual TP load. Urban expansion significantly amplified hydrological extremes, increasing peak discharge by up to 224% under extreme rainfall, thereby intensifying flood risks. Although increased precipitation diluted TP concentrations, it simultaneously accelerated overall phosphorus export. This study offers a novel modeling–monitoring framework tailored for small watersheds and provides critical insights into how land use transitions and climate change jointly reshape nutrient cycling. The findings support the development of targeted, scenario-based strategies to mitigate eutrophication risks in vulnerable river systems.