Money Isn't Everything: When Disaster Relief Fails to Sway Voters

Does the public reward incumbents for relief aid after extreme weather events? Despite the urgency of the climate crisis, relatively little is known about the political consequences of disaster relief globally. This paper explores this question with granular data on disasters and relief aid from Brazil, using both public opinion and electoral behavior. A difference-in-differences analysis of public opinion reveals that receiving aid after disasters does little to increase trust in politicians or influence vote intentions. Mayoral elections are then analyzed using matching and difference-in-differences methods, revealing no significant electoral rewards for relief aid. A few explanations are discussed, and specifically, cross-national surveys reveal Brazilians are more uncertain about responsibility compared to most countries in the Americas, suggesting misattribution may explain the zero-effect of relief aid. In the context of climate politics, the results suggest that politicians have little electoral incentive to respond effectively to disasters in settings of low clarity of responsibility.