Science by Consensus: Eliciting Citizens’ and Experts’ R&D Spending Priorities

Abstract Research and development (R&D) is widely regarded as a crucial factor in driving improvements in living standards, health, and life expectancy. Quantifying the social returns to government R&D spending and assessing whether citizens value such spending — two inputs that directly shape R&D budget decisions — are central concerns for researchers and policymakers. In light of recent and substantial reductions in U.S. federal R&D spending, evidence on these inputs is more important than ever. Using surveys of experts (N approx 115) and nationally representative U.S. samples (N = 2,008), our paper provides new evidence on these inputs. We find that 87% of experts judge that the social benefits from increasing U.S. government R&D spending at the margin exceed the costs, with the median expert expecting benefits between $2 - $2.4 per dollar invested. Furthermore, approximately 83% of experts and 81% of citizens support increasing R&D spending. These results imply that increases in U.S. federal government R&D spending are both valuable and politically feasible. Experts systematically underestimate citizens' support for R&D spending, highlighting scope for correcting such misperceptions to improve the alignment between citizens' views and policies.