Problematic social media use among Polish adolescents: psychological factors predicting longitudinal trajectories

Problematic social media use (PSMU) in adolescence shows substantial heterogeneity, yet longitudinal evidence on developmental courses and psychosocial determinants remains limited. This study identified trajectories of PSMU among Polish adolescents and tested psychosocial predictors of class membership. Students (N = 179; 54.7% female; Mage = 15.34, SD = 1.11) from Warsaw schools completed surveys at three waves over eight months. Measures included the Bergen Social Media Addiction Scale (BSMAS), Basic Psychological Need Satisfaction Scale (BPNS), Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale–Short Form (DERS-SF), Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and Perceived Stress Scale–4 (PSS-4). Latent class growth analysis identified three classes; multinomial logistic regression predicted membership. A three-class solution fit best: High–stable (18.5%), Moderate–decreasing (37.6%), and Low–stable (43.8%). Relative to High–stable, fewer emotion regulation difficulties predicted Low–stable membership (OR = 0.933, 95% CI [0.885, 0.983], p = .009). Higher need satisfaction (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02, 1.25], p = .015) and lower perceived support (OR = 0.943, 95% CI [0.895, 0.994], p = .028) differentiated the Moderate–decreasing group; stress was nonsignificant; McFadden R² = .12. Emotion dysregulation and unmet needs distinguish higher-risk trajectories. Interventions should prioritize regulation skills and autonomy-supportive contexts.