Stochastic modeling of bird nests with human-caused solid waste: a practical application in central Chile

It has been documented that urban birds incorporate solid waste of anthropogenic origin for the construction of their nests, which could alter the physical properties of the nest or expose individuals to risks of entanglement or poisoning, thus affecting the survival of the different ontogenetic stages. A dynamic stochastic model using continuous-time discrete Markov chains to analyze the complexity of urban bird populations and the effect of waste use in nest construction was developed. We used data from the passerine bird Passer domesticus , which uses anthropogenic waste to construct its nests. This methodological approach enabled the simulation of interactions among the species' ontogenetic stages and the materials available for nest construction. Simulations using data from several Talca City localities in Chile were carried out. The ecological parameters of the model were according to the available scientific literature. Modeling predicts that the presence of plastic in nests may harm the local population abundance of the species. The results suggest the importance of adequately managing solid waste in urban areas due to the impact this has on bird survival.