Human centric hybrid modeling of circular waste systems for urban transitions

Urban waste systems are shaped by interactions among household behavior, infrastructure capacity, and policy design, especially in rapidly urbanizing regions. This study develops a hybrid modeling framework integrating agent-based simulation, system dynamics, and graph theoretic analysis to examine municipal waste transitions under diverse interventions. Using a synthetic urban system grounded in national benchmarks, the model evaluates behavioral, economic, and infrastructural strategies across diversion, circularity, cost, emissions, and equity. Results show that integrated interventions improve diversion efficiency, reduce system costs and emissions, and enhance equity outcomes, while revealing critical feedback mechanisms. The framework captures behavioral heterogeneity, identifies spatial bottlenecks, and incorporates informal sector contributions and digital access. Its modular structure supports scalability across urban contexts. The approach provides a decision support tool for designing inclusive and effective waste management policies aligned with sustainability goals.