Mating behaviour and connectivity drive sporadic European bat lyssavirus 2 infections in Myotis myotis

Gaining insight into the transmission and persistence of zoonoses in wild reservoirs is essential for preventing outbreaks, assessing demographic impacts, and informing conservation strategies. Achieving this requires reliable estimates of key epidemiological parameters, which are governed by aspects of host ecology and behaviour that are notoriously difficult to quantify in many wild species. Taking advantage of a long term study of the ecology of five Greater mouse-eared bats (Myotis myotis) maternity colonies in France (~2700 marked individuals), we sought to characterise lyssavirus infection dynamics in a wild bat reservoir. Although no lyssavirus was isolated from any of the 422 saliva samples tested, we report the first indirect evidence of European bat lyssavirus 2 circulation in this species. Interestingly, seropositivity appeared sporadic within colonies (0-100% annually) and synchronized across them, with highest seroprevalence in 2015-2017, but remaining low otherwise. Fitting Bayesian compartmental epidemiological models, we found that shifts in EBLV-2 prevalence were primarily driven by mating season introduction, age-dependant variation in transmission, and frequency-dependent transmission dynamics. Lyssavirus outbreaks involve few deaths overall but can still yield high annual mortality rates. These findings underscore the value of integrating ecological and individual-level data with mechanistic modelling to enhance our understanding and management of zoonotic pathogens in wildlife.