Modeling the propagation and impact of CMEs on Earth's magnetosphere for enhanced space weather forecasting

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are massive eruptions of plasma from the Sun that carry magnetic fields and can disrupt Earth's magnetosphere, triggering geomagnetic storms (GMSs). Understanding their propagation and interaction with the solar wind is essential for improving the accuracy of space weather forecasts. This study employs numerical simulations to investigate the interplanetary evolution of CMEs and their interaction with Earth's magnetosphere. Using the ENLIL heliosphere model within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC) - which utilizes a physics-based model to simulate solar wind and CMEs within the region of space influenced by the Sun - tracks the CMEs propagation from 0.1\,AU to 1\,AU, incorporating solar wind dynamics and Earth's magnetospheric tilt. The simulation-based study reveals key CME behaviors, including oscillatory motion, magnetic reconnection events, and significant interactions with Earth's magnetosphere, , all of which play a crucial role in the formation of GMSs. . Additionally, we analyzed the cosmic ray cutoff rigidity using the back-tracing method, which demonstrates its variability as a reliable indicator of geomagnetic modulation during CME events. These findings highlight the importance of continuous monitoring and advanced modeling for accurate space weather prediction and the protection of the technological infrastructure.