Mapping Global Cereal Flow at Subnational Scales Unveils Key Insights for Food Systems Resilience

Abstract Strengthening food systems resilience requires a comprehensive understanding of global food distribution networks, especially amid escalating climate and geopolitical challenges. This research maps spatially resolved networks of global cereal flows across 3,536 subnational regions in 195 countries employing machine learning and harmonization algorithms to downscale national cereal flow data. The study identifies pivotal exporting and importing regions in both domestic and international distribution networks. Almost half of net importing countries contain surplus regions that supply grain both domestically and internationally, while nearly every net exporting country retains deficit regions that rely on inflows. Major cereal producers such as the United States, Russia, and India demonstrate substantial domestic self-sufficiency, whereas Southeast Asia and Europe rely on both domestic and international sources. The study also identifies significant concentrations within cereal distribution networks, highlighting vulnerabilities to potential disruptions. These findings offer critical insights into the spatial complexities of global cereal trade, providing a foundation for targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing global food security and resilience.