Structural evolution and cascading supply risks in the global cereal trade network amid major disruptions, 2016-2023

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The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict challenged global food security and prompted substantial reorganization of global cereal trade. Using annual bilateral trade data and country-level production and reserve data, all converted to kilocalories, we constructed weighted directed networks for nine cereals across 194–195 countries. We combined network indicators, community detection, core–periphery analysis, and an improved cascading-failure model incorporating reserve absorption and preference-weighted trade reallocation to examine structural evolution, shock propagation, country-level exposure, and distributional inequality. The network expanded through 2021 and partially contracted in 2022–2023, while community composition and core rankings shifted markedly. Stronger export shocks produced more propagation rounds, affected more countries, increased trade losses, and reduced post-shock connectivity. Export influence remained concentrated among major exporters, whereas import vulnerability was more geographically variable. Domestic supply impacts were highly unequal and disproportionately concentrated among lower-income populations, with most inequality arising within income groups.