Searching for the Park Effect. An Analysis of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Flows in National Parks in Italy

Protected areas play a fundamental role in the implementation of international environmental strategies, in order to ensure effective management systems that support the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. However, the actual capacity of National Parks to generate a specific "park effect" remains an open question. This study aims to assess whether the transformations observed in Italian National Parks between 1960 and 2018 can be attributed to a specific park effect or are instead the result of other territorial dynamics. We analysed long-term changes in land use and land cover (LUMCs) and variations in ecosystem services (ES), both inside and outside park boundaries, taking into account the SNAI classification. The results show a significant expansion of forest areas (+52%) and sparse vegetation (+56%), alongside a marked decline in arable land (–60%) and permanent crops (–26%). At the same time, the overall value of ES remains stable at around €4 billion per year, with regulating services—accounting for 80% of the total—increasing by 20% between 1960 and 2018, while provisioning services declined by 41%. Italy's National Parks represent strategic socio-ecological laboratories capable of generating benefits both locally and globally. To fully realize this potential, more integrated management is needed, enabling their transformation from mere conservation areas to drivers of territorial resilience and social cohesion.