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Expectations and Speculation in the US Natural Gas Market

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Speculative demand shocks significantly impact the real price of natural gas.
Shifts in medium-term expectations contribute to changes in the spot price of natural gas.
The third SVAR model indicates functional shocks are a key determinant of price variation.
Approximately 40% of the price variation in natural gas is attributed to speculative demand shocks.

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Analysis reveals speculative demand shocks influence real prices in the US natural gas market, suggesting expectations drive fluctuations.

Anderl et al. (2025) studied this question.

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Analysis reveals speculative demand shocks influence real prices in the US natural gas market, suggesting expectations drive fluctuations.