Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms

Abstract Hail is a major threat to agriculture, properties, and people, yet little is known about changes to hail with anthropogenic warming. Here, we use pan-European convection-permitting simulations, and a contemporary hail proxy benefiting from simulated thunderstorm features, and show that the potential for severe hail decreases under RCP8.5, except potentially for very large hail. This is despite an increase in the number of convective storms producing many small ice particles functioning as hail embryos. The decrease in severe hail potential is partly due to hail forming at higher altitudes as the atmosphere warms, which impacts both the updraft strength in the hail growth layer and the extent to which hail melts before reaching the surface. Our results contradict those from coarser resolution models which typically project future increases in hail frequency, estimated using environmental proxies. However, we find that future warm seasons feature a warmer thunderstorm type akin to hail-producing storms found in the tropics, where the largest hailstones can still reach the surface as evidenced from observations. In the future, these storms are most frequent over southern Europe, leading to regional increases in severe hail frequency. We conclude that society may need to be prepared for (infrequent but) more impactful hail in a future warmer world.