Observation of microseismic events through Gaussian probability analysis indicates high-risk zones in tunnel rock, suggesting enhanced monitoring systems.
Rockburst hazards in deep underground tunnels pose significant safety challenges to personnel and infrastructure, necessitating reliable monitoring and early warning systems. A time-dependent Gaussian probability density function was developed to analyze spatiotemporal evolution of microseismic events, implemented on a physical model of a trapezoidal roadway in an inclined coal seam (23° dip angle) monitored by 19 MEMS fiber-optic sensors. Acceleration-time analysis revealed distinct phase-dependent characteristics throughout the progressive failure process, from elastic behavior through plastic deformation to eventual failure. Time-space clustering analysis demonstrated pronounced spatial concentration of events, with failure phase events forming a defined cluster 4-6m above the tunnel centerline. Quantitative parameter evolution showed the σ ₍ᵧ₎/ μ ₍ᵧ₎ ratio approaching a critical threshold of approximately 0.3 immediately preceding macro-failure. This methodology enables quantitative delineation of high-risk zones through probability density contours, providing a scientific basis for real-time stability assessment, early warning, and optimized support design in high-stress underground environments.
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Xiong et al. (2025) studied this question.
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