The Impact of Saudi - Iranian Relations on the Future of the Regional Balance of Power

The pattern of Saudi–Iranian relations has not been consistent; rather, it is a complex mix of conflict, relative convergence of interests, and cautious consensus. To understand the nature of this relationship, it is essential to examine the various factors shaping it. Sectarian conflict is not the sole determinant. Cultural heritage—rooted in historical experiences that shaped national identities plays a significant role, alongside political factors that influence the nature of political systems and their relationship with ruling elites. Additionally, geopolitical dynamics have made the Arabian Gulf a focal point for global power competition, while ideological orientations continue to influence political decision-making. Following Iraq’s exit from the regional balance of power equation in 2003 a role it had traditionally played Iran capitalized on the American occupation to expand its political influence, supporting the formation of an Iraqi government aligned with its interests. This shift created a power imbalance in Iran’s favor, prompting concern in Saudi Arabia. In response, Riyadh has sought to enhance its military and economic capacities, potentially initiating an arms race and fostering counter-alliances, thereby increasing the likelihood of confrontation between the two states. Although there have been attempts by both sides to improve bilateral relations, the primary factors influencing these shifts are international and regional dynamics, rather than the political elites themselves, who play only a secondary role. The recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, remains under observation. While it may not resolve deep-rooted and complex regional disputes, it does reflect a mutual desire to pursue dialogue and diplomacy as mechanisms for addressing their differences.