On predicting sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka runs in the Ozernaya River (Western Kamchatka) based on cohort analysis methodology

One of possible approaches to modeling sockeye salmon age structure dynamics in the Ozernaya River (Western Kamchatka) is analyzed. The model discussed is a kind of statistical cohort model for mentioned stock unit. Using the abundance of juvenile escapement and the data on the age structure of spawners in the catches and in spawning grounds it allows under given conditions to obtain retrospective abundances for all age groups of sockeye salmon, to evaluate mature stock and to make probabilistic forecast for sockeye salmon run in the Ozernaya River for a short-term feature period (1–2 years).