Dietary shifts reshape land use and farm economics in Europe

Abstract The scale of animal agriculture in the EU threatens climate, biodiversity, and public health. We show that transitioning to plant-rich diets, under scenarios of Moderate, Low, and Zero animal-sourced food (ASF) intake, would release 28-84 Mha of agricultural land in the EU+UK and free €12-39 billion year-1 of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies as of 2020. Simultaneously, farm employment would decline by 8-58%, while unsubsidised farm profits would increase by 8% under Moderate ASF intake, decrease 3% under Low ASF, and fall 36% under Zero ASF. Most profits in animal agriculture depend on public support, indicating widespread economic vulnerability. However, impacts vary across regions: livestock-dominated loss-makers would see losses disappear, while livestock-dominated profit-makers would see profits eroded. These effects could be offset by repurposing CAP savings. To support a plant-rich, just food transition, spatially differentiated CAP reform is essential. We identify five distinct transition archetypes to guide such policy tailoring.