Assessment of Wetlands in Liaoning Province, China

In recent years, under the dual pressures of climate change and human activities, wetlands in Liaoning Province, China, are increasingly threatened, raising concerns about regional ecological security. To better understand these changes, we developed a vulnerability assessment framework integrating a 30 m wetland dataset (2000–2020) with multi-source environmental and socio-economic data. Using the XGBoost–SHAP model, we analyzed wetland spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and ecological vulnerability. Results show the following: (1) ecosystem service functions exhibited significant spatiotemporal differentiation; carbon storage has generally increased, water conservation capacity has significantly improved in the northern region, while wind erosion control and soil retention functions have declined due to urban expansion and agricultural development; (2) driving factors had evolved dynamically, shifting from population density in the early period to increasing influences of precipitation, vegetation index, GDP, and wetland area in later years; (3) ecologically vulnerable areas demonstrated a pattern of fragmented patches coexisting with zonal distribution, forming a three-level spatial gradient of ecological vulnerability—high in the north, moderate in the central region, and low in the southeast. These findings demonstrate the cascading effects of natural and human drivers on wetland ecosystems, and provide a sound scientific basis for targeted conservation, ecological restoration, and adaptive management in Liaoning Province.