Has Trade Truly Shifted From China to Türki̇ye? Exploring the Impact of Covid-19 on Türki̇ye’s Export

This study explores potential shifts in international trade dynamics following the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on their implications for Türkiye's export market. Utilizing a gravity model, the research examines trade flows between countries at an aggregate level from 2002 to 2021 and at a sectoral level from 2017 to 2022. The empirical results reveal changes in market shares, with Türkiye experiencing a moderate increase in market share within specific sectors in 2022. However, these gains do not indicate significant trade diversion. Additionally, the study identifies key determinants of trade share, including geographical distance, common language, contiguity, GDP, and the existence of free trade agreements.