Connecting Iraq’s summer and autumn temperature variability with global sea surface temperature

The present study examined the monthly summer and autumn temperature (ºC) variability in Iraq and its relation to the global sea surface temperatures (SST). The dataset, collated from eight meteorological stations and spanning the period from 1971 to 2010, was provided by the Iraq Meteorological Organization and the Seismology Department. The SST modes were obtained from the Hadley Centre (HadiSST2). The statistical analysis used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and Principal Components (PCs) to identify the characteristics of Iraq’s spatial and temporal variability. EOFs’ results for summer and autumn identify that EOF1 is monopolar, with variances of 77.26 and 69.23%, respectively, which refer to the links between the climatological parameters and the large-scale. Meanwhile, the second EOF is bipolar, with variances of 8.04 and 10.10%, respectively, due to the local connection. The derived results from the correlation maps demonstrate a relationship between Iraq’s summer and autumn temperatures and large-scale SST patterns. The occurrence of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, accompanied by a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), is expected to lead to a rise in temperatures in the region. The Pearson correlation coefficients between ENSO and summer and autumn PC1 and PC2 are 0.11, 0.59, and 0.14, –0.27, respectively. The correlation coefficients of the AMO index with summer and autumn (PC1, PC2) are 0.31, –0.2, and 0.03, 0.19, respectively. The results confirm the slight impact of the two modes on Iraq’s climate variability.