Do More Visitors Mean More Crime? Analyzing the Impact of Visitor Patterns on Crime Rates in Urban Areas Using Mobile Device Foot Traffic Data

Abstract This spatial inquiry addresses a key question in routine activity theory: does an influx of visitors into a neighborhood increase crime opportunities by increasing the number of motivated offenders and suitable targets, or does it enhance guardianship capacity? The study explores these dynamics across different crime types: aggravated assault, robbery, and motor vehicle theft using more accurate cell phone mobility data to estimate work-hour and after work hour visitors in Arlington, TX. Results from spatially lagged negative binomial regression models reveal that higher after-work hour visitor ratios are associated with increased aggravated assault and robbery frequency, likely due to more offenders and targets converging in these areas. Conversely, work hour visitor ratios show a stronger link to motor vehicle theft, suggesting that reduced guardianship during work hours may heighten crime opportunities. The relationships between visitor ratios and crime vary by crime type, indicating that temporal shifts in guardianship and offender-target interactions significantly influence urban crime patterns. These findings provide novel insights into the stability of crime patterns and the role of visitor dynamics, enriching the routine activity theory literature and offering implications for targeted crime prevention strategies in policing and urban planning.