Coupling Coordination Relationship and Evolution Prediction of Water-Energy-Food-Wetland Systems: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province

Against the backdrop of global population growth and intensified resource competition, the sustainable development of the water-energy-food system (WEF) is facing challenges. Wetlands, as key ecological hubs, play a crucial role in regulating water cycles, energy metabolism, and food production, thus serving as a breakthrough point for resolving the bottleneck of resource synergy. Incorporating wetlands into the WEF framework helps us comprehensively understand and optimize the interrelationships among water, energy, and food. This paper proposes an indicator system based on WEFW to study the coupling of water-energy-food-wetland systems and analyzes the evolution of the comprehensive development index of WEFW and its coupling relationship in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2022. It uses the grey correlation model to explore the sustainable development capacity of wetland resources, water resources, energy resources, and food resources in Jiangxi Province, and employs a geographical detector model to quantify the contribution of wetlands to WEFW. The research results show that (1) the comprehensive evaluation of WEFW systems in various cities in Jiangxi Province has generally improved, but there is imbalance in regional development. Cities such as Nanchang and Jiujiang have performed well, while cities like Jingdezhen and Xinyu need to enhance resource integration and sustainable development. (2) The coupling coordination degree (CCD) has experienced a process of “stability-fluctuation-recovery”, with a significant increase after 2014, and the spatial differentiation characteristics are obvious. (3) Wetlands play a dominant role in the spatial differentiation of CCD, and their interaction with water, energy, and food resources significantly enhance the explanatory power of their impact on CCD. (4) The grey model indicates that the CCDs of WEFW systems in most cities of Jiangxi Province have a projected annual growth rate of 1.8% (2022–2032), reaching 0.71–0.73 in leading cities. These results emphasize the importance of wetland protection and sustainable resource management in promoting regional coordinated development. The research and prediction of the coupling coordination relationship of water-energy-food-wetland systems can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of Jiangxi Province and also offer important scientific references for other regions to achieve a balance between ecological protection and resource utilization.