“AI-Driven Industrial Coordination”: A New Pathway to Enhance the Export Technological Complexity of China’s Manufacturing Industry

This study investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the technological sophistication of manufacturing exports in China, grounded in a theoretical framework and supported by provincial panel data from 2010 to 2023. The empirical results show that AI significantly enhances the export sophistication of manufacturing sectors at the provincial level. However, this positive effect is primarily concentrated in eastern provinces and regions with more developed financial systems. The coordinated development between manufacturing and producer services is identified as a key transmission mechanism through which AI drives export upgrading. Moreover, the development of the technology market positively moderates the relationship between AI and export sophistication. Threshold regression analysis further reveals a nonlinear relationship, suggesting diminishing marginal returns to AI in enhancing export sophistication as AI development reaches higher levels.