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October 1, 2025Open Access

Joint leave-group-out cross-validation in Bayesian spatial models

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Authors

ACAlex CooperAVAki VehtariCFCatherine Forbes

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Overview

This study demonstrates that joint cross-validation improves predictive performance in spatial models, indicating better model selection methods.

Key Points

  • Joint scoring in cross-validation reduces variability in predictive estimates, leading to improved model selection.
  • Experiments on Gaussian covariance structures reveal that aggregation of blocks enhances reliability of predictions.
  • Focus is given to the influence of correlation structures on cross-validation design, critical for spatial models.
  • Findings are particularly significant in cases of strong spatial dependence and subtle model differences.

Cite This Study

Cooper et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68dd91c7fe798ba2fc498613https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2504.15586
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