Family fertility choices as a risk management mechanism: evidence from Late Qing China

This study investigates deliberate fertility control as a risk management strategy in traditional agricultural societies, focusing on Late Qing China. Using disaster records and the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Liaoning (CMGPD-LN), it demonstrates that fertility adjustments-such as delayed marriage and reduced childbearing-alleviate economic hardship. These strategies are particularly effective in low-population pressure regions like Liaoning, where families face both demographic and environmental uncertainties. The findings emphasize that fertility control is not merely a demographic consequence but also a purposeful household strategy to mitigate risk. This research contributes new empirical evidence to the understanding of population regulation in traditional societies, showing that families naturally develop mechanisms of fertility regulation and highlighting the trade-off between offspring quantity and offspring quality.